How to change the heavy truck industry in dry good

2022-06-21
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Dry goods: how to change the heavy truck industry in 2018

Abstract: all localities have promoted the traffic restriction measures for national III vehicles to accelerate the upgrading of national III vehicles. The traffic restriction measures have reduced the operation efficiency, and the cost of installing DPF is higher. The starting price of installation fee is about 10000 yuan, and the cost of large displacement models can be as high as 38000 yuan. It is possible that the requirements of the new emission standard can not be met after the installation

road transportation management is becoming more and more standardized, the number of heavy trucks is growing synchronously with the economy, and the sales center is expected to continue to move up. Based on the inventory of 2.85 million logistics vehicles (5.69 million heavy trucks in 2016, accounting for about 50%), it is expected that a total of 570000 new vehicles will be added at one time during the year, pushing the inventory to more than 6million. Based on the annual life cycle, the annual renewal demand is 10000 vehicles, and the sales center moves up about 100000 vehicles. In the future, due to the steady growth of ownership with the macro-economy, it can be predicted that the sales center will continue to move up slightly

in terms of structure, the proportion of logistics vehicles and engineering vehicles is more balanced. The data disclosed by China Automobile Association are classified into semi-trailer tractors, heavy trucks and non complete heavy trucks. According to its application, semi-trailer tractor is mainly used for logistics transportation; Heavy duty trucks and incomplete vehicles are mainly used for engineering manufacturing machinery; There are both logistics demands and engineering demands in heavy trucks. It is assumed that the two demands account for half respectively

In the year of

, the proportion of sales of logistics vehicles continued to increase from 38% to 63%, while the trend of engineering vehicles was the opposite. The reason behind this is that China's economic development mode has changed from investment to consumption, and the demand for logistics and transportation has greatly increased. The one-time new demand for logistics vehicles in the second half of 2016 makes the ratio of logistics vehicle sales to engineering vehicle sales reach 7:3. We expect that after the impact of future policies tends to be stable, the ratio is expected to maintain a balanced state of 6:4

the demand for logistics vehicles is more stable, and the balanced structure has weakened the cyclical fluctuation of the heavy truck industry. Fitting the sales volume and GDP index of logistics vehicles and engineering vehicles (based on the price in 1978), we find that the correlation between logistics vehicles and GDP is stronger, and the demand is more stable; However, the demand for engineering vehicles fluctuates even more. With the steady growth of macro-economy, the heavy truck demand brought about by the increase in the proportion of logistics vehicles will be more stable than the original demand mainly for engineering vehicles. It is expected that the cyclical fluctuation of heavy truck sales will be weakened in the future

price trend: the average price of technology upgrading has increased

from the perspective of the power of main models, the heavy truck industry is developing towards high horsepower. At present, the change-over switch should be turned to the "load" position. All manufacturers have launched horsepower models as the main models, and products with an exhaust capacity of more than 13L are welcomed by the market

the treatment of over limit and overload in China has lasted for nearly 20 years, but due to the non-standard management, the phenomenon of over limit and overload still occurs from time to time. By increasing the single load capacity, drivers can transport more goods and earn higher income. Therefore, driven by the interests, the load capacity often exceeds the level specified in the policy

the governance was strengthened, and the new regulations strictly stipulated the upper limit of load. According to the original regulations, 6 × 2 and 6 × The upper load limit of all 4 models is 55 tons. 6 under the new regulations × 2. The upper load limit of the model is 46 tons, 6 × The upper load limit of 4 models is 49 tons

management specification + strict upper limit of load, increasing the demand for improving transportation efficiency. According to the calculation, the high-power heavy truck can improve the operation efficiency at the revenue end, and then improve the income. It is estimated that in the whole life cycle, the income of 540 HP heavy trucks will increase by 23% compared with 440 HP heavy trucks

the emission standards are in line with those of Europe and the United States, driving the upgrading of product technology. Generally speaking, more stringent emission standards represent a higher technical level of the engine. Although the implementation time of China's emission standards is later than that of Europe, it is accelerating to catch up. In particular, the implementation control level of China's V has been equivalent to that of Europe's V standards

in order to meet more stringent emission standards, the products need to be upgraded continuously, resulting in higher costs. At present, the more mainstream technical route on heavy trucks mainly adopts high-pressure common rail +scr/doc/dpf and other post-processing technology modes. Compared with national standard 5, national standard 6 is more stringent. SCR and EGR may appear at the same time. If doc+dpf is installed, the cost of a set will increase by 10000 yuan, and the cost increase will bring about a high probability of product price increase

the unit price of the product is rising, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Under the industry trend of product upgrading, the single vehicle income of heavy trucks of SINOTRUK and Shaanxi heavy truck (Weichai Power subsidiary) has increased year by year. In the first half of 2017, the average unit price per vehicle of Shaanxi heavy truck was 305000, an increase of 7.3% over 2012. However, compared with foreign heavy trucks, the unit price of heavy trucks in China still has room for improvement

at present, the price of mainstream heavy trucks in China is between million, while the price of mainstream heavy trucks in Europe and America is between million, twice that of China. With the progress of laws and regulations, the upgrading of product structure and the increase of the proportion of high-power heavy trucks, we expect that the average selling price of heavy trucks is expected to continue to increase

by exploring the characteristics of heavy trucks in the United States, we can find that the main reasons for their high prices are:

1. The structure of heavy truck models is developing towards weight, and the proportion of high-power models is high

2. The cab interior is more comfortable and luxurious. The proportion of the highest level heavy trucks in the United States increased

pattern trend: the optimization of competition pattern and the concentration of share to the leading position

the nature of heavy assets determines the increase in the concentration of heavy truck industry. In, Cr5 of the heavy truck industry increased from 79% to 84%. The reason is that: the heavy truck industry is a typical heavy asset industry, and the scale effect can reduce costs; At the same time, in terms of improving the level of R & D technology, the industry leader has abundant funds and strong product competitiveness

in 2017, FAW, Dongfeng, China heavy truck, Shaanxi heavy truck and BAIC Foton ranked among the top five in the industry sales volume. Among them, the sales growth of FAW Group, Shaanxi heavy truck group and China heavy truck was much higher than the industry average (63%/60%/55%)

influenced by policies and product structure, the market share among leading enterprises fluctuates. We believe that only those enterprises that closely follow the development trend of the industry and improve product technology can obtain the increase of market share

cost performance advantages: the overseas market has great potential.

due to the weak industrial system, some developing countries in Southeast Asia and Africa have strong demand for heavy truck imports. The overseas market of heavy trucks is mainly concentrated in the third world countries in Asia, Africa and South America, especially the countries with weak automobile industry system and insufficient self supply

China is one of the few countries in the world that has the capacity to produce heavy trucks on a large scale. According to oica statistics, in 2016, China's heavy truck production reached half of the world's total. Other countries with large-scale heavy truck production capacity are only Japan (14%), India (8%), the United States (8%) and Mexico (4%). China's production capacity is in a leading position in the world

with the advantages of high cost performance, Chinese heavy trucks can compete with European and American used cars to seize the market space. Most developing countries used to mainly use used cars that were eliminated from Europe and the United States. However, the price of heavy trucks in China is similar to that of used cars in Europe and the United States. In terms of parameters, the technical level is almost the same, and the cost of repair and maintenance as new cars is less. Therefore, heavy trucks are gradually favored by the third world countries. In 2017, China exported 38000 diesel trucks with more than 20 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%

the top 20 countries in terms of annual export volume and amount are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. In terms of export volume, the Philippines, Russia and Kenya grew rapidly, and the export volume in 2017 more than doubled compared with that in 2016. By dividing the export amount by the corresponding export quantity, the export unit price of diesel trucks with more than 20 tons in China is less than 40000 US dollars, which is superior to the heavy truck price in Europe and the United States

profit trend: the new capital expenditure decreased and the enterprise profit increased

the industry recovered and roe improved. From the perspective of quarterly roe of major heavy truck enterprises, roe has been gradually repaired since the recovery of industry prosperity and sales volume in 2016. According to the results of the nail pulling experiment immediately, the total asset turnover and net sales interest rate have improved significantly, reflecting the benefits of improving capacity utilization when the heavy truck industry is in high prosperity

the capacity expansion of major heavy truck enterprises has been basically completed since 2013. After 2013, the capacity expansion of the heavy truck industry was basically completed. On the one hand, the new capital expenditure of mainstream enterprises decreased to a low level, on the other hand, depreciation and amortization decreased, and the industry profits increased

outlook 2018: stricter environmental protection may be a new driving force for heavy truck growth

from the perspective of the factors affecting the prosperity in 2017 (overload control + economic recovery), we believe that although the influence margin of some factors is weakened, the actual demand for heavy trucks most fundamentally comes from the development of logistics and infrastructure, and the demand will remain stable. At the same time, under the environmental protection upgrade, the elimination of national III vehicles will accelerate, or become a new driving force for the growth of heavy trucks in 2018

the capacity expansion of major heavy truck enterprises has been basically completed since 2013. After 2013, the capacity expansion of the heavy truck industry was basically completed. On the one hand, the new capital expenditure of mainstream enterprises decreased to a low level, on the other hand, depreciation and amortization decreased, and the industry profits increased. Taking sinotruk as an example, the annual capital expenditure, depreciation and amortization expenses have been significantly reduced, while the capacity utilization rate has been significantly improved (the company's fixed asset turnover rate in Q3 2017 was 20.8%, up 111.5% year-on-year. The tensile properties of plastics and rubber are the most important and basic mechanical properties), and the profit level is up

logistics vehicles: Although the marginal influence of new demand driven by policies is weakened, the demand for logistics vehicles comes from the growth of total social logistics demand. Since the second half of 2017, the year-on-year growth rate of logistics vehicles began to fall, and the influence of new demand brought by policy dividends is weakening. However, the growth of social logistics demand is the fundamental source of logistics vehicle demand. Since the past 16 years, the growth rate of China's logistics industry has been obvious: the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of road cargo volume and road cargo turnover has increased by 6.3pct and 6.1pct respectively, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total social logistics has increased by 1.4pct from February 2016 to December 2017. Therefore, with the further development of the logistics industry in 2018, it will play a supporting role in the sales of heavy truck logistics vehicles

engineering vehicles: it is expected that the macro-economy will continue to operate smoothly in 2018, the infrastructure construction and other fixed investment projects will advance steadily, and the demand for engineering vehicles is relatively stable. In 2016, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport jointly issued the three-year action plan for the construction of major transportation infrastructure projects. It is planned to focus on promoting 303 railway, highway, waterway, airport and urban rail transit projects in, involving a total investment of about 4.7 trillion yuan, of which 2.1 trillion yuan, 1.3 trillion yuan and 1.3 trillion yuan in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. The impact of the plan will continue in 2018, Driven by the demand for infrastructure, the demand for engineering vehicles will remain stable

the environmental protection policy has been strengthened, and the national III traffic restriction has promoted the renewal demand of more than 3million vehicles. It is expected that with the gradual clearance of heavy trucks of national III and previous standards, considerable upgrading demand will be brought

all localities have promoted traffic restriction measures for national III vehicles to accelerate the upgrading of national III vehicles. The traffic restriction measures have reduced the operation efficiency, and the cost of installing DPF is higher. The starting price of the installation fee is about 10000 yuan, and the cost of large displacement models can be as high as 38000 yuan. There is a chance that the requirements of the new emission standard can not be met after the installation. As the proportion of the number of vehicles in provinces and cities with traffic restriction policies is not low, the upgrading of these national III vehicles may become the driving force for the growth of heavy truck sales in 2018

2018 saw a good start for the heavy truck industry, which is expected to

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